Interesting info:
It takes 54,000 downloads to reach the top 10 of the free iPhone app charts
Top 10: 54,000 downloads/day
Top 25: 38,400 downloads/day
Top 100: 13,000 downloads/day
wow… that puts the asset store into perspective… 
I got 80 000 downloads and was still 9th in the top 10 (two years back with Dead Strike free version). But yeah, ads revenues where skyrocketing! XD
Then from 80,000 to 54,000 bodes ill for the various App Stores.
From the article;
Our readers may remember that last December Distimo reported it took over 80,000 downloads to crack the top 10 of the free app charts in the U.S. — a significantly higher figure that was being driven up by download bots. Once Apple banned the practice, the number of downloads required to chart app declined noticeably, falling by almost 15 percent between December and May.
So then App popularity is exaggerated? I think a new set of bots will be downloading this Christmas Season until Apple catches and filters out the new bot activity patterns.
Think i’d agree with your second view of it haha.
Does seem to be what they are saying, however I’d hope they’d be fairly prompt at noticing it having spotted it before.