How is everyone estimating App Store Size now?

Ever since I believe Xcode 5.1 or 5.2, the “Estimate App Store” button seems to estimate the size of the app on the device, not the actual size they are downloading (the size constrained by the 100MB limit over 4G)

We are very conscientious about delivering Apps below 100MB, and then asset bundling the rest. However since the Xcode update, I can’t get a good basis of what the true App Size will be, and if it will be constrained by the 100MB limit imposed by Apple.

I have a couple apps that show being 150-200 MB in the “Estimate App Store”, but in reality they are well under 100MB. Xcode used to estimate this more accurately, but not it does not.

What is everyone else doing? Can we base it roughly off the IPA size?

Here are some threads as to what I’m speaking of:

I really wish to know the answer for this question. We think that the estimated app store size from the organizer on Xcode is not even close to accuracy or at least not consistent. Anyone, on this have more info?

I had an estimated app store size of 141 MB, when I put it on testflight, the size listed as 33.4 MB, after install, going to Settings → General → Usage → Manage Storage I see it is installed at 141 MB. Not sure how to estimate the download size other than releasing it as a beta test since the estimate does indeed look like installed size.