Personally, I am skeptical about VR, still waiting for AR to show any real content with staying power and not just novelty games like Pokemon Go, and not to sure about new tools REALLY giving us the “create game” button, or procGen solving all problems out there.
The foreseeable future is filled with interesting new hardware experiments in VR/AR, like there were interesting new motion control systems experiments out there in the last 10 years (that didn’t really set the light afire in the end, but gave Nintendo quite a boost and gave us exciting new games like Guitar Hero), GPU power keeping scaling up nicely thanks to intensified competition from AMD, hopefully the same could be said about CPU power if Zen turns out to also ramp up competition.
4K screens replacing FullHD as the standart resolution, Mobas and Hero Shooters being replaced by something new as the AAA poster child genre (please make it RTSes), maybe more shifts in the way console hardware is built and distributed, shorter lifecycles or going in the direction of moving the hardware part into the cloud.
VR, to me, will most probably stay a small niche once the bubble bursts and people see the current crop of VR as the quite limited expierience it is. A perfect match for seated simulators, still an awkward expierience for most other genres unless the gameplay gets severly limited to match the limitations of the VR devices.
AR I can see as a perfect match to mobile and social gaming, like what Pokemon Go does. I don’t think it really fits hardcore gaming, and I don’t think most AR games will have a ton of staying power. I could see most people tire of playing something like Pokemon go after a while.
Game making will certainly change, new tools will bring new ways to speed up the process. The wild hopes some people on this very forums have that there will be a tool in the foreseeable future that gives you the “build MMO button” or similar things is maybe going way to far.
Sure, at some point we ALL will be replaceable by AI. At some point there will be the question if you even need ANY game developer working on a game anymore. Will that be a great time for game devs? IDK.
Even before that, if there still is some input needed from a game dev, it might turn out the increased efficiency in building games will lead to an increased ouput of games. Again, we have seen that over the last few years, more because the flood gates of steam and similar stores got wide opened for Indie devs. I got the feeling that this turned out to be a blessing and curse especially for the small Indie devs that had high hopes for just that to happen.
ProcGen… meh. I see a ton of potential in it, but again, the “second coming of christ” hype it sometimes gets is a little bit blown out of proportion for me. Sure, we have seen some very GOOD examples of procgen done right, when procGen was used sparingly to enhance the traditionally crafted expierience. We have seen what it can lead to when procGen was used as a crutch to help people overscope massively (see NMS)…
Goes quite in the direction of the “build MMO” button. As long as you don’t build a tool or ProcGen as intelligent and/or competent as a good game designer, and give the tool enough iteration time and a massive set of testing and feedback loops, maybe even with real players, you will most probably get a flat expierience like NMS was for most people.
Not saying this isn’t a solvable problem. That could be just where the human designer comes into play, feeding input into the system, then testing the result on real humans, throwing away the result and using the testing feedback as input for another round of generating a better designed game. Repeat that process, use the time savings not for shoveling out games at an increased speed (which would hurt the market and sales of everyone in the end), but use it for additional time for testing and iteration, and you might get better games to market, with more consistent quality control.
If this is the result of increased use of ProcGen and “make game” buttons, everybody wins (save the jobs replaced by machines, but with more testing being conducted more job opportunities there)… but maybe I have seen way to many shovelware popping up on Steam lately for not being a little bit skeptical about that ![]()