Sudden drop in number of daily installs on Google Play Store

Hi folks,

Been following this thread, contacting Google, logging into Discord etc. Here’s something I just realized, and I don’t think it has been discussed.

Note that I am based in Sweden.

  1. Category pages like “Puzzle” are empty on web (with exception of the 3 Designed For Families age groups).

Category sub-pages like “top selling free” are not empty, but only available via Google web search:

When look at cached search results, category pages like “Puzzle” do contain content. Presumably the cached results are US-based?

  1. App page is missing similar apps block on web. (can’t upload more screenshots). The right hand side of the app metadata is just blank. Whereas in the (US) cached version there is Talking Tom and 4 others.

It seems there is a geographic issue. So not only has similar apps changed what it displays, but in some countries it has gone missing entirely?

I’ve send this over to Google today.

Cheers,

Per

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No this is definitely a bug, my games for old ladies are being shown zombie shooters as similar, the cross over between those 2 has got to be absolutely zero.

Also the games which we have seen a big increase on have absolutely tanked in terms of user aquisition, so less people are being shown relevant content. One game was seeing 4-5 times the views on the play store but with only double the installs now. The whole store is utterly screwed atm, even recommended for you is showing me stuff which i’d never install in a million years, and its been showing the same games now since the update on the 20th with no change to the list.

Is a bug, isnt a bug…
This a part of google response.

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Well so how can it be than an app with a 4.75 rating with 70k ratings, top 2% over all in crash rates monthly updated since 8 years with by far the best ratings of all it’s competitor is also affected ? :slight_smile:

None of the competitors are visible in the similar apps and it’s the same for all of them, we are now fully unrelated and all linked with some other random apps.

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  1. Quality have Nothing to do with the ratings/ recommendations cause they have no idea how to measure Game quality … that’s what the PR department say … then it’s given to the engineers and they have some basic parameters (Like does the game have 10.000.000 installs achieved(in one month) from cross promotion because your company have 1000 games promoting your new stuff?) which obviously can not evaluate a game quality.

  2. I’m pretty sure there are also big (by our standards) games / companies affected.

  3. And the most important.
    Did Google ever admitted that they did something wrong? that some algorithm was an epic failure? Will they ever admit this? even when you present the evidence …

*ps: the apps shown as Related are not random … they are chosen by the algorithm by some new top of the notch parameters … we could go with conspiracy theory and assume that the profit they make for Google is one of the most important factors … i did not want to say it … but maybe having adds from another provider than Google adMob like Unity etc etc (which does not generate for them anything is a factor ). But obviously not even this can be taken as a rule because there are games with NO adds which dropped …
So it’s possible that’s just a bug … but i assume they are willing to lose 10% of the stock than admitting that someone f…ked up the algorithm

It seems Google’s support has put this text on auto-reply:

I agree with the post above that a lot of developers are suffered - both poor-quality apps, and very high-quality! Most of the victims simply read the messages on the forum (I’m one of them), or justify the fall of downloads by some kind of temporary factor.

Maybe there is some kind of platform in which you can collect signatures in order to have a relevant counter? Any suggestions?

P.S. I do not know why, but I remembered this:

It’s their intentional change which hasn’t yet quite work out as they planned for now and is currently in a bugged state. However, if their change wouldn’t result in bugs, broken lists, empty pages and a looped More by this dev list - still, we would see our downloads decrease.

Here is a screenshot of their official response:

3548370--285175--OfficialGoogleStatement.png

What’s important is their intent. It’s not going to change in the near future at least. And it’s logical and follows the example of Apple. And we’ve seen how it played out with Apple. E.g. I got dozens of apps rejected, and dozens removed from the store. I have heard from several developers independently that dealing with Apple has become a nuisance for them. In a call with their representative, the Apple guy hinted that they take former Steam as boutique store as an example. Basically, less trash on the store, more hand-picked stuff. And a proper inventory worthy of people who’ve bought an expensive, elite device. Well, he didn’t say exactly that - I kind of asked him if that’s what they want, and he kinda confirmed. You know, an Apple person can’t official say such stuff, they need to stay polite and politically correct. By the end of the call, I understood that there is basically nothing I, as a single dev, can offer to their store that they would really want to accept. Or at least it should be a game I spend years on development of (like a Steam-targeted PC game), yet it should monetize on in-apps. But then you need a working monetization model, with a server, in-game economy and live support - basically, a company with employees. Also, as years have proved, this only works for a narrow subset of genres which not every indie likes or respects.

So, now Google is on the same road. I bet that in the first half of 2018 alone they’ve got 1m (or even more) new apps uploaded. By the end of 2018 it could well be 2m, if not 2.5m new apps. It’s like a big “garbage explosion”, with thousands of sweatshops and bedroom coders springing up and using the Unity Asset Store to buy cheap templates and publish easy asset flips, multiple studios re-skinning and re-skinning stuff. Multiple studios publishing stuff to quickly sell it on Flippa (check that online auction and what’s being sold there to get the idea). Multiple investors buying up garbage en-masse and inserting triple interstitials to force you make an accidental click on the ad. Etc etc… The same avalanche has hit Steam btw…

Google has hired armies of people to process updates and check new submitted apps. They apparently test the app completely every time you update anything, even just add a space character to the end of the description. Imagine how much it costs to Google to manage a single app on the store. Multiply that by 4-5m (and rising)…

Then someone at Google thought: what do our users really want? Maybe they made surveys, or studied data extensively. The majority of users only need a few of the best apps. After all, they don’t have much space on their phone. It’s also the mainstream audience, without any diverse tastes. Girls, for example, are a type of audience with very narrow tastes - just Talking Angela and the Barbie app would keep most of them happy. Well, after a while you could add Talking Angela 2 and Barbie 2, and then a few more sequels. Mobile users generally only play games which everyone else plays, in a narrow set of genres/templates. They don’t want to learn new rules in new games, and only want stuff which they already know.

Google and 80% of Android users would be just fine if the store had 100 of the best apps.
I know I’m exaggerating, and indeed Google also needs an inflow of new ideas, and new hits, and rotation in the top charts. But the store for a long time used to be a big junk pile - and that’s what users have been saying for years. Time for a cleanup. It’s also an image problem: Google, a big tech company, doesn’t want to be a trash pile.

While the algo is adjusting, some apps will go up, some down - all those on the fringes, feeding small studios and bedroom coders. If some of them will go under or temporarily thrive - Google and especially the majority of users couldn’t care less. Our loyalty lasts until the next AdMob paycheck anyway…

Our only hope is that Google somehow reconsiders its intent. It could be (as said) that AdMob revenue drop is too large. Or that they kinda pity the devs and assume that we still aren’t that worthless after all… Might be other considerations, too. Maybe some vocal users will say they won’t want Talking Cat Tom (unlikely).

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Totally agree, Admob is also reviewing the quality of applications directly by humans (I believe).

Still no definitive information from Google. After providing evidence to Google support that the “Similar Apps” section is broken (see this previous [post]( Sudden drop in number of daily installs on Google Play Store page-6#post-3547093)), they replied yesterday evening that they’re looking into the issue:

Hi Alexandru,
Thanks for bringing your request to my attention.
I want to make sure I get you the best answer possible, and I appreciate your patience while our relevant team looks into your issue. I’ll be sure to reach out to you as soon as I have an update.
Please let me know if you have any questions in the meantime.
Regards,

So, we’ll have to wait some more, but at least they didn’t gave the template reply with “favoring app quality”.

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The information from google is a copy/paste.

Ya it’s same in my case from last Saturday 23/06/2018 my daily download ratio fallen down from 1800 to 200.
i don’t know what is issue but hear from all devs i realize it’s not only problem in my case. my 80% download come from Russia and now today it’s totally fallen down i already checked my all keyword but there is nothing change. i hope google will solve it ASAP otherwise i am indie dev and l will lost my stable earning totally, if you guys any update than tell here.

I’m close to google, working a lot with them on different subjects but I have the same issue. I had a lot of talks with them this week, but nobody there really knew what was the problem. They indeed noticed that a lot of developpers were loosing installs while other were growing.
All my top games went down except 1, but it’s not growing, it is just flat. On this one the overall quality is not as good as the other games (vital, rating, retention…). So quality might no be the real reason of the drop… Maybe it has to do with the history of the game. This game was launch previous our other “successes” and it has over 5M downloads so far. So the historic of this game is “longer” than the others… Anthony is it the same for you ?

Someone at google told me this week they also pay attention of “clones” games. I must admit that a lot of my games are “revamp/reskin” of other more famous games. So maybe they decided to give less visibilities to “clones or me too games”. I’m still puzzled on this because i think it is very difficult to find that my games are using a similar gameplay as other games because the arts and universe is fully different… BUT, maybe they screen the user reviews and see people commenting “good game but Rip of Angry Bird” for instance …
If so, I would rather suggest that Google is flagging some developpers as cloners and decrease their visibility…

However, it does not explain why the similar app section looks weird with unsimilar app that are pushed…

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Kinda. This is my first answer from them in a pretty long conversation, that looks like a copy/paste. But I think they’re going to give a more relevant reply later today or maybe in the weekend.

Yeah, the older game with far more historical downloads and reviews is the one performing better. But that’s a pretty small sample size to draw any conclusions from.

looks like many of us are saying that the most recent games are the most affected.

someone at google told me this week that the era of organic trafic on Google Play is ending and that we (as developpers) might not expect to be such succesfull relying only on organic trafic. Does that mean improving the quality, the ARPU, making UA…??? so this really match the current situation.

However the similar app is broken and has to be fixed.
Also, putting what the customer want in front of customer face is Google DNA. I do not really understand why they would change this by limiting the number of adequate product to push to the user.
At last, as someone said above, is Google really willing to kill thousand of developpers with this new algo? you may like or not Google, but I think they are supporting a lot the developper community. i’m not sure their goal is to loose 80% of their developper community…

Well, that’s key info… They really said it in those words?

Not sure it’s 80%.

Rather, only the top 3-5% or so developers are probably affected. The top 0.1% isn’t affected - they’re benefiting. The other 90-97% of dev accounts are students, hobbyists and devs who stopped developing apps and still have the accounts/apps - these never generated any noticeable downloads, never were in “Similar Apps” and thus aren’t affected.

Basically most people reading this thread are the top 5% devs who make just enough to quit daily jobs but not enough to become a big company. Maybe some small company owners… You have to be in the top 5% (or even top 1%) to get 5k downloads per day on an app - and that’s which apps were participating in the “Similar Apps” recommendation ring and now got scattered by the algo change.

Maybe there will be just further consolidation… Apps concentrating on huge accounts run by bigger and bigger investment companies. With most unsupported and under-earning apps gradually getting deleted from the store for violating some policies (after policies change but the apps don’t, since there is no source code or no programmer around to update them).

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The problem is the “quality game” google criteria.
If the era of organic traffic on Google Play is ending, only we have the virality or paid marketing.

very well said, from my point of view they afford to lose 99% of developers and nothing will change for them (like they did for the web search), i don’t know even if anybody would notice it.

From my late analysis of the market:
Quality = 1.000.000 installs in 3 days … 10.000.000 in 30 days … take that indies :)) why your game is not generating 50.000.000 installs in 3 months , it must be poor quality (and obviously not the fact that you are not a company with thousand of games crosspromoting)

Can’t say this is a similar apps glitch, I’ve dropped from 25,000 to 2,000 installs a day. Friday, i dropped to 7,000 then the weekend when i usually spike on installs dropped to 2-3000.

80% of “Real developpers”, not single dev in a garage or student. they canno’t afford to loose the trust of 80% of real developpers that always helm them to improve their product. do not expect the BIG GUYS to help you change/improve your products because they are already big and not not want change/improvment. they want the situtation to stay the same. Only followers (small developpers) give real feedback and real input to make things change. So either google want to stop innovating or either they still need this developper community.
I can completly agree thtat this new algo could make sense in a way or another (despite the similar app problem) BUT I can not believe that google is entending on prupose to cause so much pain on its developers… That is why, for me despite what I said before and what google is saying this week, they will make a move to fix a little bit the problem.
One other guy from Google told me that they need to screw it a little bit. not sur eif this mean they need to fix it or to smooth the cursor… however i’m confident that it will move in our favor, at least a little… but there ero of organic is ending so it might slowly decrease time after time…

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